Poll: Democrats Lead Republicans 16 Points Heading Into 2026 Midterms

Democrats hold a sizable advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot as the 2026 midterm elections approach, according to new polling.

If elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, 54.4% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, compared with 38.4% who said they would back the Republican candidate, a 16-point margin, the survey shows. Another 6% said they did not know who they would support, while 1.2% said they would not vote.

The results, released by AtlasIntel, suggest Democrats are entering the pre-midterm period with a clear edge in voter preference, 11 months away of the November 2026 elections. The generic ballot — which asks voters to choose between parties rather than specific candidates — is often used as a broad indicator of national political sentiment.

Such a margin, if sustained, would put Democrats in a strong position as campaigns begin to take shape across competitive districts. Historically, midterm elections have often favored the party out of power in the White House, though national conditions, turnout and district-level dynamics can significantly alter outcomes.

The poll did not include a breakdown by region or demographic group, and it reflects voter sentiment at the time it was conducted. With months remaining before the midterms, analysts caution that economic conditions, legislative battles and international events could still shift the political landscape.

Still, the 16-point Democratic lead underscores the challenges Republicans may face as both parties look ahead to a high-stakes fight for control of the House in November 2026.